Future Growth in the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area

What will the future bring?

This age old question has just gotten some answers - at least for the greater Washington, D.C. area. The answers are at once disturbing and encouraging, as you can see by running your cursor over the map at right.

Since we all want a future in which our communities and our environment are healthy, it pays to look at how the choices we make today are likely to affect our communities and our region in the future. There are many ways one might look at these issues, but one of the most telling is the pattern of development - the location and rate at which land is developed. There are two primary reasons for the crucial role of development patterns;

• First, as new land is developed it becomes less able to filter rain into the ground and so increases runoff and the pollutants carried in that runoff
• Secondly, where land is developed determines the choices people have for getting around and effects opportunities to maintain open and working land, like farms and forests.

To answer the question of what future development patterns would be like, the University of Maryland's Department of Geography has just completed a growth modeling project looking at three different scenarios predicted to the year 2030.

The modeling results indicate that where we are currently headed may not be where we want to end up. However, it also shows that we can accommodate growth without the harmful effects of sprawl if we change course now.

Results

Based on the computer modeling work of the University of Maryland, the greater Washington, D.C. metropolitan area will likely see an 80% increase in developed land (over 800,000 acres) if current trends are followed. Much of the newly developed land would be expected in the portions that are currently rural, resulting in a loss of almost 700,000 acres of farm and forest lands.

By comparison, under moderate growth management practices, development would be likely to require 300,000 acres of new land - an increase in developed land of only about 30% for the region. Because the moderate protections under this scenario specifically seek to direct new development away from currently rural lands, this would reduce the amount of farm and forest land developed by over 475,000 acres. Under growth management providing strong protection for working and natural resource lands, only 200,000 acres of new land would be developed.

Run the cursor over the image below - zoomed-in to a northern portion of the study area. The model results clearly indicate the potential difference between where current trends are leading, versus the future results of consistent, managed growth. The red color indicates developed land, while green is forest and yellow is farmland.