Future Growth - Data

The results of the future growth modeling for the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area show that over 800,000 acres of new land will be developed if current trends are followed. This would come almost exclusively at the cost of farm, forest, and other working and open space lands throughout the region.

By contrast, consistently directing new development away from important natural resource lands would accommodate growth pressure while reducing new land development by 60%, under growth management practices, or almost 75%, under stonger conservation planning.

The total amount of new land development is one significant factor in anticipating the impacts of future growth. Equally, important, however, is where new development would be expected.

The model results show that under current trends rural areas, such as Stafford, Fauquier, Frederick, and Carroll Counties, would convert more land to development than presently closer-in areas, such as Montgomery, Prince George's, and Fairfax Counties. Continuing current sprawling patterns would, obviously, have farther reaching effects as well. For example, if development continues to be scattered throughout rural lands, more people will be traveling farther for every errand; public services, such as emergency response time increase with distance; and the budget for road maintenance gets stretched thinner over increasing miles.

Following our region's historic pattern of focusing growth in and around existing towns and cities would offer people more choices in how they get around and would fully utilize the public investment in roads, transit, water and sewer while preserving important cultural, economic, and environmental lands and resources throughout the region.