Natural Ecology of the Bay
Growth Patterns

The standard pattern of land conversion has changed dramatically in the past three to four decades. For example, cities such as Baltimore, Maryland and Richmond, Virginia were growing steadily through the 1940s, and not until the 1960s did they begin to decidedly lose population.

Throughout the growth and subsequent decline of these and other cities, the watershed's population continually expanded. Hence, growth is not simply about numbers, but location. Clearly, in just the last 3 to 4 decades, growth location has shifted away from existing urban areas and toward rural areas.

This shift only hints at the significant changes that have been occurring in terms of the amount of land converted to urban uses. Between 1970 and 1990, the population of the greater metropolitan D.C. area grew over 35%. In that same time, however, the amount of land in urban use in that area increased over 95%, almost two and a half times faster than population growth, according to the Brookings Institution. With land consumption growing far faster than population, it is not surprising that huge portions of farm, forest and wetland are being lost. The Natural Resources Conservation Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture recently estimated that over 143,000 acres of land in the Bay watershed are now being developed every year (over three times the area of Washington, D.C.). Moreover, the lands that are being converted are primarily those concentrated around waterways and the Bay itself - the most important lands in terms of water quality.

In short, patterns of land use have changed recently and significantly. Contrary to our long history of focusing development in or adjacent to existing developed areas and keeping rural areas available for farming, forestry, and natural filtering, these rural lands are increasingly being converted to development while our towns and cities are allowed to decline. The upshot is that we are consuming increasing amounts of land per person, in precisely those areas that serve as the last buffer between land and water. This combination, and its ill-considered impacts, seriously challenges our ability to maintain water quality and thus the ecologic and economic health of the Bay.

Mixed use development (particularly around transit station areas) and revitalization of existing communities can go a long way to reduce the negative impacts that development can have while accommodating needed growth in the region.

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